Lottery Forecasting & Research
The use of on-line panels is a natural way of testing for new lottery concepts in order to mitigate continuing declines in lottery revenues of games that have become stale in the marketplace. On-line panels allow you test a variety of concepts, provide ready access to a large and diverse pool or respondents and the survey results can be obtained relatively quickly. Moreover, on-line panels are very cost effective, with the cost per survey response being very low as compared to other methods.
On-line panel results are quite easy to analyze with regards to qualitative characteristics of lottery games, however they prove to be more challenging when trying to determine quantitative properties such as sales and revenues because 1) the sample may not be fully representative of all players, and 2) one needs to adjust for frequency of play; the sample implicitly assumes that respondents participate in every draw. In working through this challenge, Paradigm Consulting Group has developed a technique for forecasting rolling jackpot games which allows for the level of over-reporting, or bias, in the sample to be adjusted in a fashion that produces realistic sales estimates. Additionally, we have developed a dynamic modeling technique that allows a natural roll pattern to emerge, thereby ensuring that the reported expenditures from the survey corresponds with the appropriate sales levels and aggregate revenue estimates.
Our methodology also allows us to test for:
- Sales and revenue forecasts of different concepts
- Variations in regional sales
- Cannibalization of existing games including:
- Competing national lottery games
- Regional games
- Spiel games